Prediction of Covid-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Nigeria Using Polynomial Regression Model


Olum Ekene J. and O.C. Okeke

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) is a global pandemic and Nigeria is not left out in being affected. This study is focused on the analysis prediction of the spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria, applying statistical model (Polynomial Regression) and available data from the NCDC. The study is an insight into the spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria in order to establish a suitable prediction model, which can be applied as a decision-supportive tool for assigning health interventions and mitigating the spread of the Covid-19 infection. The polynomial regression models are prominent tools in predicting the impact of certain factors on COVID-19 outbreak and taking the necessary measures to respond to this crisis. The objective of this study is to implement a predictive model in forecasting the near future number of new death and positive COVID-19 cases expected in Nigeria following the present trend. A polynomial regression model prediction on the epidemiological data obtained from Nigerian Centre for Disease Control to predict the epidemiological trend of the prevalence and incidence of COVID-2019. In this study, we examined the inadequacies involved in the manual method of predicting new death and COVID-19 case to enable government to make decision in reducing the death and spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The methodology we adopted in this study is the Object-Oriented Design Methodology (OODM) which combines data and processes (methods) into single entities called objects while Microsoft Visual Basic is our programming language of implementation. The new system will be used in generation of reports and results to create, process, and validate a model that can be used to forecast future outcomes of new death and COVID-19 case.  The system was implemented using programming language and SQLite because it is not a server side application, which needs a standard database management system.Keywords: Prediction, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Pandemic, Morbidity, Polynomial regression, Prominent, Predictors, Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).





Olum Ekene J. and O.C. Okeke (2023).Prediction of Covid-19 New Cases and New Deaths in Nigeria Using Polynomial Regression Model. IDOSR JOURNAL OF APPLIED SCIENCES 8(1) 1-12, 2023.